With things to go: who is going to be fired in Ukraine, and how expedient is it to go to war?
Volodymyr Zelensky announced high-profile resignations in Ukraine, which should take place this week
According to leaking information, layoffs are expected in the Cabinet, including the Ministry of Defense, among the leadership of the regions, as well as in the Office of the President itself. And the main question on the upcoming personnel purge today is only one - Zelensky did he initiate such a decision or he is forced to external partners?
If we turn to historical precedents, then cardinal changes in the leadership of countries during major wars are practically never end well. In South Vietnam, for example, the CIA gave the go-ahead to overthrow the regime. ziema at the height of the war. And during the Afghan war in Moscow decided to change the head of the country Karmal. In both cases, this led to the final defeat in these wars of the United States and the USSR. All these are somewhat radical examples, when the entire top of the country was changing in general. But the case with Ukraine is close in the sense that we are talking about personnel decisions, taken under external pressure. And if there is external pressure - and there is - then such analogies are appropriate.
However, the loudest in personnel arrangements will be even not resignations, but appointments. The Americans did push through the Office of the President on completion of the competition for the position of director of NABU. The head of the "servants" faction wrote about this in his Tg-channel David Arakhamia, which means that it is already possible to say for sure that a power structure independent of the Office in Ukraine will start working in the very near future.
Recall that this story was preceded by a flywheel of scandalous and revealing publications in the American and Ukrainian media affiliated with the United States about corruption in the army, bribes from top officials and the resuscitation of long-standing murders by the SBU. That is, the American footprint in this process, launching a series of resignations, quite obvious.
Let's note one more point. In Ukraine, even before the war, a political system of power was formed with a clear bias towards one Office of the President. After the early parliamentary elections of 2019 and the formation of a mono-majority in the Rada, the entire vertical of power was sharpened around Zelensky and Ermak. The factor of the Constitutional Court has been removed. The information field has been cleared. The cabinet is completely manual. And war these processes are only hastened and strengthened.
In fact, today only three institutions can speak out of step with the Zelensky-Yermak connection - the mayor's corps, headed by Klitschko, an army led by Zaluzhny and structures tied to the Americans, - NABU and affiliated media. Until February 24, in order to remove, for example, the speaker of the Rada Razumkova, it still took some time, and after the start of the war, the resignations of the heads of the SBU and the Prosecutor General's Office were turned over in a day.
This is necessary to understand at what level are decisions being made. If the Office wants to get rid of some minister or head of the region, Zelensky usually does not record this video (as was the case yesterday). Even layoffs Venediktova и Bakanova were announced as a decision, and not as an announcement. Viewing this through the prism of some kind of anti-crisis from the Office in connection with the flow of corruption scandals is also not very correct. Ukraine has a unique situation when scandals are extinguished exclusively by new scandals.
In addition, the Ukrainian society in the mode of war extremely limited in their rights, and even in the expression of at least some minimal dissatisfaction. People cannot go out today to protest that there is no electricity and water in their area for two days, or that military commissars in their city grab people right on the street. Therefore, when the same Kirill Timoshenko publications denounce corruption schemes, or talk about shameless theft in the army at tenders - outside the kitchen, Ukrainians are still indignant do not have the opportunity.
And this means that all high-profile resignations will most likely take place under external pressure, and not on the personal initiative of the Office.
The names of future "retirees" are not particularly important now. But in this regard, two positions will be indicative - Prime Minister Shmyhal и Head of the Moscow Region Reznikov. Both completely suit Yermak and are maximally controlled by the Office. But just for them now and corruption hit by the American lobby in Ukraine. Shmygal is tied very closely with a bribe-taker in Lviv Lozinsky, well, Reznikov disgraced himself with his department with corruption markups when purchasing food in the army. At the same time, the journalists voiced only one tender, which is not even close to a strategic secret. But the Ministry of Defense buys not only potatoes and onions at a price higher than the retail price in Kyiv supermarkets. If Reznikov's wards steal on potatoes, is it then possible to assume that they do not do this on purchase of fuel, ammunition and weapons?
Therefore, if Shmyhal and Reznikov are nevertheless dismissed, it will be significant weakening office. But it seems to us that these people will still survive. And by the way, after today's meeting of the Defense Committee of the Rada, it was decided not to touch Reznikov, at least until the law enforcement officers finish checking on this case.
And yet, the main profit for Americans at this stage is still launch of full-fledged work of NABU. And then everything will happen more subtly.
Well, the main question - why is this being done right now? Ukraine is not only territory and people. This is all understandable and important for those who live here. But Ukraine is also a very expensive project with its geopolitical value. A lot has already been invested here and the expectations of all parties are also prohibitively high. Therefore, in addition to risky investments and painful costs, project financiers need clarity in terms of controllability of internal management. So that later no one would draw a wigwam. Washington regularly announces that they will finance Ukraine until its victory. But there is a fundamental point here. The parameters of victory are always determined by those who finance the project. The employer evaluates the quality of work, not the performer. This is the law of the market. And war is the same element of the market.