Russia is preparing for an offensive, and Putin considers the war existential and intends to win it at all costs
What does the latest Bloomberg article say?
In the American edition of Bloomberg on January 27, an article was published under the heading "Putin is planning a new offensive in Ukraine, despite the losses, and is preparing for a war that will last for years". It is interesting because it is the first among the Western media to state a number of obvious things regarding the likely development of hostilities in Ukraine in the future.
"Nearly a year after the invasion, which should have taken several weeks, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin trains new attack on Ukrainewhile preparing his country for a conflict with the US and its allies that he expects to last for years to come.", - the authors of the article formulate its main idea.
Two points immediately stand out here.
Firstly, over the past 3 months, while Russia, quite obviously, was preparing for a major offensive, Western media and politicians preferred not to notice publicly this, talking about the prospects for further Ukrainian offensives after the success of the autumn campaign. News about the mobilization of 300 thousand people in the Russian Federation and the work of defense enterprises in three shifts was presented in the West, as if cut off from coverage of the situation at the front. One got the impression that, according to Western analysts, the situation on the battlefield froze somewhere in September 2022, when the APU had a numerical superiority over the Russian group more than three times. Now the Western press is talking about preparing the Russian Federation for an offensive.
Secondly, for the first time in the American media, a vision of the ongoing conflict by the Russian leadership is given and it is stated that the Kremlin presents it not as a "war for part of the territory of Ukraine" and not even as a war for all of Ukraine, but as a long-term, systemic and existential confrontation with the United States and their allies. Simply put, how new cold war, in which, after the end of the "hot" confrontation in Ukraine, other fronts may open.
Further in the publication follows, in our opinion, the duty reference to the fact that "having achieved success in the offensive, the Russian authorities hope to gain advantages in the negotiations, since it will be extremely difficult to maintain even the current positions". Despite the fact that this passage is called in the text "the opinion of an unnamed representative of the Russian authorities", it stands out from the general context of the publication and looks like self-indulgence American authors.
According to Bloomberg, Vladimir Putin remains convinced that a larger force and Russia's willingness to put up with losses already in the tens of thousands, according to US and European officials, let her win. The Russian offensive could start as early as February or March, the newspaper claims, citing "people close to the Kremlin."
"The Russian leader believes that he has no other alternativeother than to win what he considers an existential conflict with the US and its allies, people say", notes Bloomberg.
This quote from the article contains the recognition of another fact that the Western press has previously avoided: the war in Ukraine is existential for the Russian leadership and Russia itself. Kremlin can't afford to lose her, as this would cause destructive internal political processes in the Russian Federation. Consequently, there can be no question of any implementation of Western and Ukrainian ultimatums that "Russia should simply withdraw its troops and surrender." Russia will fight to the end. And if he turns out to be unfavorable for her - able to use all his arsenalup to tactical and strategic nuclear weapons.
Among other things, the Bloomberg article notes the possible start of a new wave of partial mobilization in Russia next spring (however, it does not take into account the fact that much more than 300 thousand people could have been mobilized in the last wave and a new wave may not be needed) and planned by the Russian side "an increase in the army by almost 50% in the next three years"(We wrote about this in detail, covering the creation of new military districts and divisions in the Russian Federation).
According to the authors of the publication, the war in Ukraine tends to switch to positional format in the style of the First World War, which would have been more beneficial to Russiathan Ukraine, as it has a significantly larger amount of resources.
The article ends with the recognition of the fact that the anti-Russian sanctions of the West turned out to be less effectivethan their authors expected.
“While the new wave of sanctions pressure — in particular, capping the price of Russian oil exports — has reduced the Kremlin’s revenues, it does not yet limit Putin’s ability to finance the war. Economists say Russia has still have access to billions in reserves in yuan, which are not affected by sanctions and can help overcome the budget deficit by as much as 2-3 years", notes Bloomberg.
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