It's too early to relax: queues at gas stations and gasoline via the Internet may return

At the beginning of summer, Ukrainians breathed a sigh of relief, as the situation with the supply of petroleum products has improved significantly, and it became obvious that the fuel crisis is over: Queues at gas stations disappeared, and the largest networks announced the removal of limits. But soon the situation may change again, because Ukraine is completely dependent on European supplies, and they can be significantly reduced due to growing domestic needs. About it in an interview RBC-Ukraine told the director of "Consulting Group A-95" Sergey Kuyun.

The problem was solved thanks to the abolition of state regulation of prices

According to Sergey Kuyun, opening the market and activating suppliers allowed abolition of state regulation of prices, so much so that in June the number of fuel importers three times higher than pre-war. 

“Not only wholesale companies that previously worked exclusively on the domestic market, but also agricultural, transport and industrial enterprises began to supply petroleum products. As a result, the market was sufficiently filled with diesel fuel and liquefied gas, and also almost reached the minimum required level of gasoline supply. demand. At the height of the fuel crisis, consumers tried not only to refuel, but also to make certain reserves. Someone bought an additional 2-3 cans, and someone bought a keg of 200 liters. Now this is no longer the case, which allows you to gradually fill the retail network and even stock up on gas at gas stations"Kuyun says.

The market filling led to the expected decline in prices

The expert argues that in contrast to the first months of the war in Ukraine, you can now clearly see what the supply and demand are. This allows us to state that consumption of all grades of petroleum products in Ukraine decreased approximately doubled compared to the pre-war period.

"The filling of the market led to the expected start of a price decline. For example, liquefied gas has fallen in price by almost 20% over the past month. If at the beginning of June it cost under UAH 45 at some gas stations, now there are cases of trading at UAH 35-36. We also see "prerequisites for reducing prices for diesel fuel. Traders have brought in significant volumes, it is necessary to reduce prices in order to return the money as soon as possible. Now there are prerequisites for cheaper diesel fuel by 4-5 hryvnia per liter"Kuyun said.

However, the expert believes that make long-term price forecasts difficult under the current conditions. The situation remains unpredictable due to the huge number of factors that will affect the cost of petroleum products. According to him, given the destruction of domestic oil refining, now Ukraine is completely dependent on supplies from the European market.

Europe, meanwhile, enters phase of high seasonal consumption against the backdrop of palpable shortage of free resourceswhat provokes increase in purchase prices. And the greater the shortage of fuel in Europe, the more expensive and difficult it will be for us to buy it, says Sergey Kuyun.

"Oil is getting cheaper, the margin is growing. Interesting and rather unexpected events are now taking place in the world market, where the price of oil is falling. If during the peak periods of June the price of Brent reached $130 per barrel, now it has dropped to $100-105. This is a significant decline However, so far no one understands what caused this fall in prices. oil on the world market, - the expert predicts.

Relative calm in the fuel market is deceptive

According to the director of the A-95 Consulting Group, the transformation of the global oil market, which occurs due to the sanctions of the Russian Federation, especially worries European countries. Nobody understands how important embargo on Russian oil supplies will affect the shortage and cost of fuel in Europe. However, it is obvious that this will put a lot of pressure on the European market, and, accordingly, into Ukrainian. Therefore, the expert is sure that it is too early to relax, ahead of the seasonal peak of consumption.

“It may seem to some that the absence of queues at gas stations indicates a solution to the problem. But this relative calm on the fuel market is deceptive. the task is to ensure even greater volumes of deliveries"Kuyun says.

He also notes that there are also certain problems in the traditional import directions for Ukraine.

"Due to increased demand from Ukrainian companies, the port transshipment of oil products in Romania and Bulgaria is already overloaded. In Poland, there are no free capacities at all to ensure the transshipment of fuel for the Ukrainian market. In addition, seasonal consumption is also growing in these countries, so it is possible that that their governments will try to limit supplies to Ukraine to meet domestic needs," - the expert believes.

Therefore, according to Sergey Kuyun, it is already necessary to work on diversification and expansion of supply chains, and not only business, but also the state needs to work on this.

"We need an effective dialogue with the governments of countries through which we can increase the supply of petroleum products. For example, with Poland, whose capabilities are now used only by 50%. With Romania and Bulgaria, which may abandon the idea of ​​​​blocking some" windows "of supplies to Ukraine for the sake of saturating its own market, or with Germany, which can provide more efficient logistics for the supply of petroleum products to Ukraine from the ports of Belgium and the Netherlands", - advises the expert.

Earlier we wrote that due to the fuel crisis that began in mid-May, Ukrainians began to massively switch to bicycles.

А On May 18, the government decided to suspend the regulation of fuel prices, however, it still determined the maximum prices for it: 58 hryvnia per liter of diesel and 52 hryvnia per liter of gasoline.

At the beginning of the war and after the bombing of the refinery Poland sent fuel to Ukraine for free, but at the end of May, the Poles announced that now they will have to pay for this fuel.

About what happened in the Ukrainian fuel market and the causes of the crisis, we analyzed in detail in our material.

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