The tipping point is approaching: what are the warnings for Ukraine in the West?
Western top officials recently made a number of alarming statements about Ukraine's prospects in this war
Formally, in all cases a call for a significant increase in supplies weapons to Ukraine. And judging by the announcements, in the near future the Armed Forces of Ukraine will indeed receive new types of weapons, and even quantitatively they will be able to significantly saturate the army with them. But still, emotional uncertainty also slipped through all these statements by Western leaders.
“This is a turning point in the war and the need for a significant increase in support for Ukraine. If we want to reach a peaceful negotiated solution tomorrow, we must provide more weapons today.”, - said in Davos NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
And there he added: “President Putin is showing no signs of being ready for peace, so he must realize that he cannot win on the battlefield.”.
Recall that a Ramstein meeting will take place today, where a new package of military assistance to Ukraine will be announced, and therefore nothing extraordinary Stoltenberg did not seem to voice it. Given his position, as well as a time-tested anti-Russian stance, the top representative of the alliance calls for an increase in military supplies to Ukraine.
And yet, while calling for a “significant increase” in military support, Stoltenberg also speaks of a “tipping point in the war.” You can, of course, try to interpret this as an ordinary pretentious construction characteristic of such events. But on the same day, the same thing, only with much more dramatic turns, was also announced by Polish President Andrzej Duda: “What we have already sent is not enough. Ukraine needs a lot of effort, we must mobilize to help them. The situation is complex, and in the coming months or even weeks there will be key moment in this war. And this moment will tell whether Ukraine survives or not.”.
The President of Poland said almost the same thing as the NATO Secretary General - Ukraine should be given much more weapons, only Stoltenberg's opposition about the "turning point in the war" was specified a darker picture. There won't be many more weapons - Ukraine is finished.
We have already said more than once in our discussions: the West extremely disadvantageous turn this conflict into a positional war. The reason is purely practical. The costs interrupt all the profits that give the weakening of Russia.
Already, the US and its allies are facing a dilemma over military supplies. The pace of 2022 was clearly insufficient. Russia overestimated its capabilities of the February 2022 model, and the military and financial assistance of the collective West to Kyiv made it possible to avoid the defeat of Ukraine. Recall that in January-February, American intelligence communities in unison asserted that Ukraine, in the event of a major invasion by the Russian Federation, would last a maximum of 3 weeks. And the entire range of military supplies of that period testified that our country prepared for partisan resistance.
But the general disposition of the parties for the year has changed dramatically. Russia has switched to a mobilization economy, respectively, and is already waging a new type of war - a positional one to exhaust the enemy. And this means that the current pace of Western support for Ukraine already insufficient. At best, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can only positionally hold the front, but not carry out offensive operations larger than the tactical level. But the main thing is that in the medium term, such a war leads to an increase in the costs of the West, and hence to common strategic defeat.
Therefore, apparently, a decision has already been made on a “military breakthrough” in supplies to Ukraine, which will turn the tide at the front and force Russia to sign an unfavorable peace. But still, when the phrase “will Ukraine survive or not” sounds, there is no confidence among the Western allies that the plan to significantly increase military supplies will work.
And the problem is not only in the difficulties of mastering new equipment and all that motley “zoo” supplied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The problem is that in the end it may not even be enough that Kyiv requests in quantitative terms. In any case, when quantitative and qualitative indicators are announced after Ramstein, we will make a substantive analysis of military supplies.
The war is indeed now approaching its climax, and this is very clearly felt by the statements of Western tops. The key problem is not even that the West is trying to minimize its costs and at the same time prevent the Russian Federation from winning the conflict. The key problem is that for Russia itself, this war is already became an existential challenge, and she does not intend to lose it in any hands, regardless of any resource costs. For the Russian Federation, unlike the West, there is no question of price at all, and this complicates everything as much as possible.
Here is a characteristic comment on the eve of Rammstein Dmitry Medvedev, which in the Russian Federation plays the role of an emotionally offensive relay of the Kremlin.
«The loss of a nuclear power in a conventional war can provoke the outbreak of a nuclear war. The nuclear powers did not lose major conflicts on which their fate depends. But this should be obvious to anyone. Even to a Western politician who has retained at least some trace of intelligence ".
In fact, it's not even veiled, but direct nuclear blackmail. The Kremlin admits that a significant increase in arms supplies to Ukraine can change the situation at the front. Capable. And the Armed Forces of Ukraine can still go on a successful strategic offensive. But since it is still impossible to lose under any circumstances, it means that a nuclear strike is possible behind this.
And this is the key problem whose solution in the West no one has. Russia does not intend to lose and will not stand up for the price. And the West constantly holds a calculator in his hands.
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