The operational pause is over, the Russian Federation is advancing again. What's next?

The operational pause at the front, which came after the loss of Lysichansk by Ukraine, seems to be gradually ending. On the eve of the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergey Shoigu gave the order on accelerating the offensive of the Russian army in all operational areas. We figured out what is happening on the line of contact now, and what to expect in the near future.

After the fall of Lisichansk, there was practically no noticeable progress at the front. Active battles are now taking place along the line Seversk - Soledar - Bakhmut, while both sides report mutually exclusive information about their successes. So the Russian media and Tg-channels have been talking about battles for several days in the urban area of ​​Seversk. At the same time, the official speakers of Ukraine claim that the Russian Armed Forces have not yet occupied the village Belogorovka and Verkhnekamenka - the last settlements in the Lugansk region, controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And in this case, by definition, there can be no active battles for Seversk itself, because it is impossible to physically get close to the city from the east.

Approximately the same situation occurs with the long-suffering offensive in the Kherson direction. The day before, the head of the press center of OK "South" Natalia Gumenyuk on the air of the Ukrainian TV channel "Espresso" said: “In the Kherson direction, we are moving, maybe not as fast as those who give positive news would like, but believe me, these steps are very confident. And it is precisely for this that they are made in silence, in a certain secrecy, in order to gain a foothold in that territory and then announce their victories.

It is not entirely clear what Gumenyuk means by "confident but covert offensive." The front line in the Kherson direction, according to American interactive maps, which show the change in the positions of the parties in colors, has not changed for more than a month. There is no evidence that any new villages came under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

And yet, despite the sluggish change in the front line, the course of the war itself took on a more violent character. The sides began to exchange demonstrative and painful missile strikes. With the advent of high-precision weapons on the platform of the Armed Forces of Ukraine M142 HIMARS, the RF Armed Forces missed sensitive hits on warehouses and headquarters communications in the deep rear. Skadovsk, Kherson, New Kakhovka, Lugansk, Donetsk, Stakhanov, Izyum, Melitopol - this is not a complete list of cities where the Armed Forces of Ukraine have attacked over the past two weeks. In response, the RF Armed Forces intensified strikes on the deep rear of Ukraine - Odessa, Dnipro, Zaporozhye, Vinnitsa.

Both sides are raising the stakes. Threats are increasingly being heard from Ukraine that as soon as technical capabilities appear, a blow will be immediately struck on the Crimea or the Crimean bridge. Just the day before, he once again announced this Advisor to the head of the OP Arestovich. Other representatives of Ukraine, including speakers from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, also speak about this.

And against such a background, Shoigu's statement appears, and it is quite difficult to interpret it differently than an order to attack.

And here the comments of Shoigu's opponents are interesting, and they are also very colorful. Tak Arestovich started talking at length about a certain “plateau” that the RF Armed Forces have reached, making it clear that the Russian army is no longer able to attack. Recall that earlier Arestovich said that “the war will end in 2-3 weeks”, that Russia “has no more missiles”, that “We will not give up Mariupol”, “Severodonetsk will not be taken”, and “Lysichansk is their last success in this war." Back in June, Arestovich spoke about the beginning of a large counter-offensive in the Kherson direction, and yesterday he reasoned that after the HIMARS strikes, the grouping of the RF Armed Forces would simply “scatter”, and therefore there would be no need to storm their fortifications.

Therefore, everything that Arestovich says - and he says quite often and quite rational things - is leveled by his own rather ridiculous statements.

Much more interesting is an excerpt from an interview with Obozrevatel, the former head of Ukraine's foreign intelligence service, General Nicholas Malomuzh about the ultimatum that Russia delivered to Ukraine: “The terms of these negotiations have already been announced in Russia. This is the recognition of the Donetsk and Lugansk "republics", which they intend to completely capture, then "demilitarization" and non-joining NATO, and the third - the status quo on the occupied territories that are now controlled by Russia - Kherson, Zaporozhye, Kharkiv regions.

Further, the Ukrainian general says that nothing will come of the Kremlin, and in general, he turns a little into Arestovich, but nevertheless, Malomuzh voiced the essence of “Putin’s ultimatum” quite clearly.

At the same time, the American think tank for the study of war, ISW, publishes a strange and contradictory forecast that “Putin has ordered Russian forces to take control of the entire Kharkiv region, despite the extremely low likelihood of Russian success in such an effort.” From ourselves, we note that it is strange to take "the entire Kharkiv region" when the Donetsk region has not yet been taken even close. And, all the more, it is strange to give such an order when the RF Armed Forces in this area do not have the resources to carry it out.

But if you add up all these messages of recent days, there is no doubt that even more intensification of fighting awaits Ukraine in the near future. And the intentions of the parties, each of which speaks publicly about the beginning of its offensive, only confirm this.