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11 July 2022 14: 45
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How realistic are Ukraine's statements about the counteroffensive on the Kherson region and whether it is necessary to evacuate

In Ukraine, there is a request for “winning cases” in the southern regions.

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How realistic are Ukraine's statements about the counteroffensive on the Kherson region and whether it is necessary to evacuate

The Ukrainian authorities at various levels are again calling on the residents of the Kherson region, which is now almost completely under Russian control, leave their homes immediately. Just last night, a new statement was made by the head of the Ministry of Reintegration Irina Vereshchuk. In fact, Ukrainian speakers veiledly say that a big offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson direction is about to beginand therefore the locals must take security measures.

Similar statements increased in recent days. Head of Kherson Regional Council called for evacuation Yuri Sobolevsky, telling that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to fire at the army warehouses of the RF Armed Forces. The day before, Vereshchuk also stated that residents of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions still have opportunities to leave. Even earlier, the mayor of the city of Alyoshka, Kherson region, voiced a similar Evgeny Ryshchuk.

Recall that a few weeks ago, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President Alexey Arestovich has already announced the imminent offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson direction.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on the contrary, in their latest reports does not say anything about any progress towards Kherson. There is no information about this from Western analytical centers, which update interactive maps daily, where settlements controlled by one side or another are marked with a fairly high degree of reliability. Note that there have been no fundamental changes in the Kherson direction in recent weeks.

Simultaneously there is an urgent request from the Ukrainian authorities to activate the “winning case” in the southern regions. But, given the limited resources of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction, as well as moderate supplies of Western equipment, it is difficult for the Ukrainian army to objectively attack the same Kherson.

Until recently, this was offset by the active work of the Ukrainian DRG behind enemy lines, in particular, there was a number of assassination attempts on officials, social activists and journalists who agreed to cooperate with the Russian side.

But at the same time the same week was quite successful for the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the appearance of long-range guns and American MLRS on the front. Fairly accurate strikes were carried out against warehouses, ports, airfields and other infrastructure facilities in the Russian-controlled south. It's obvious that they will continue in the future... But At the same time, the RF Armed Forces intensified shelling on Nikolaev and its immediate suburbs.. Those. artillery and rocket strikes here are mutual.

Another point of interest. On July 9, Zelensky issued a decree on the removal from office of the governor of the Kherson region Gennady Laguta. Judging by reports in the media, behind the scenes in the Office, it is Laguta who is accused of the weak-willed surrender of the region, which since the beginning of the war has almost completely come under the control of Russia. Wherein the example of the neighboring Nikolaev region or the border Kharkiv region showed that the defense could be kept if the leadership of the region did not have declarative intentions. In addition, Kherson itself is located on the right bank of the Dnieper, and therefore its defense for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is much more convenient than the same Nikolaev, on the way to which there are no such natural water barriers. But Laguta was removed only now, without any criminal conclusions.

We have previously written that it is the Kherson direction that will become a priority in the long-announced counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We only note that at this stage, the Ukrainian army does not have the ability to take control of Kherson and the entire right bank of the region.

However, the appearance of long-range systems in the Armed Forces of Ukraine already creates additional problems for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in this direction, as well as poses an additional threat to the lives of civilians. Поэтому The decision to evacuate must be made by each individual.. But the fact that staying near military, infrastructure and administrative facilities of the region poses an increased threat to the lives and health of civilians, this is already indisputable.


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