Between the lines: what and why did Medvedchuk write and why now?

The article is interesting, if only because it programmatic and largely reveals the intentions of the Kremlin about the future of Ukraine.

Initially, there are two basic things to consider. First. Medvedchuk not quite a simple character and has a certain influence on the first person of the Russian Federation. How strong this influence, we do not know for sure, but yet it exists, and this must be taken into account when reading the article itself.

And the second. Medvedchuk is not a blogger and not a fan of scribbling a few bright and outrageous lines in his free time, as the same Dmitry Medvedev, and in Ukraine, for example, Mayor of Dnipro Boris Filatov. Medvedchuk just don't write. This means that this article appears at a certain time and with certain messages for a reason. Moreover, everyone knows that this material will certainly be read both in Washington and in Kyiv.

Medvedchuk begins his reflections from afar, namely from the results of the Cold War, where, in his opinion, the United States impudently deceived the expectations and aspirations of Russia. According to Medvedchuk's conclusions, in the 90s the Russian Federation sincerely wanted to integrate economically with the West and build a large joint Europe "from Lisbon to Vladivostok", but the United States viewed Moscow as the losing side in the Cold War, and therefore as its own colony, whose interests are not taken into account..

“Russian influence is not only unwelcome, but declared wrong, criminal and corrupt», - Medvedchuk argues.

That is, here main thesis: The United States deceived the aspirations of Russians to become an integral part of the big West.

Then Medvedchuk moves on to Russian-Ukrainian relations and again begins his story from afar.

"These relationships closer interaction between England and Scotland or northern and southern states. Ukraine has been a part of Russia for more than 300 years, which has affected the culture, ethnic composition and mentality”He writes.

Note that Medvedchuk's theses on the unity of the Russian and Ukrainian peoples almost identical to Putin's program theses, which he published in a high-profile article in the summer of 2021.

There is another interesting passage in the material: “In 1991, Ukraine receives its independence not as a result of the national liberation struggle, but by agreement with Moscow".

Medvedchuk, like Putin, are lawyers by education. It is clear that they do not conduct any legal practices, but a legal education in itself serves as a marker for understanding the geopolitical perception of the world by these people. Therefore, if Ukraine gained independence in 1991 under certain agreements with Moscow, then from the point of view of jurisprudence, if the basic agreements are violated, then the subject of the transaction is independence - can also be canceled. Medvedchuk didn't literally write it, but that's what it says between the lines.

What follows is a discussion of how the United States, since 2005, began pump Ukraine along the line of anti-Russia: politically, ideologically, culturally, etc. And in all this, Medvedchuk catches the "pattern of the Cold War."

Another passage by Medvedchuk is aimed at deception by the last two presidents of Ukraine their voters.

“The elections after the second Maidan are won by President Poroshenko, who promises peace with Russia in one week. That is, he was elected as the president of the world. Nevertheless, he became the president of the war, did not comply with the Minsk agreements and lost the next election miserably. He was replaced by Vladimir Zelensky, who also promised mer, and became the personification of war. That is, peace is promised to the Ukrainian people, and then they are deceived.”, the author argues.

And now we go to two main thesesfor which all this material was written.

First thesis - Medvedchuk scares possibility of nuclear war. The article speaks of nuclear war more than once, and not even twice, but three times. If any adviser Biden or Macron will explain what exactly Medvedchuk was trying to convey, the triple mention of the possibility of a nuclear conflict, according to the author, should reveal the basic thesis with a probability of 100%.

Let's quote all three sentences where Medvedchuk scares with a nuclear conflict to understand the general context in which this is presented:

1) “If someone says that he is going to build a new world with his neighbors, but simply pushes his interests, regardless of anything, even war, even nuclear, then, obviously, he is not going to build anything. It was about Zelensky and his team.
2) “And if Europe continues to continue this policy, then it will be drawn into the war, possibly into a nuclear". This is a direct warning to the European elites.
3) “And now there are only two ways out: slide into world war and nuclear conflict or start the process of détente again, for which the interests of all parties must be taken into account. This is already a proposal-gesture to the Americans.

At the same time, one must understand that Medvedchuk, in terms of his formal status, is, in general, it's not entirely clear who. He was deprived of his Ukrainian passport only a few days ago, and in the Russian Federation he is clearly not the person who makes the decision to use nuclear weapons. But we have already noted above that Medvedchuk's informal status is still much higher than what can be indicated in a certificate or work book. Therefore, when Medvedchuk points out three times that everything is slipping into a nuclear war, he is does not speak for himself, but only in agreement with those who make such decisions.

И second thesis - outside of Ukraine create a political movementwhich will seize power from the "party of war" and will build a completely different country.

“If the West does not want to listen to the point of view of another Ukraine, then this is its business, but for Ukraine such a point of view is important and necessary, otherwise this nightmare will never end. This means that it is necessary to create a political movement from those who did not give up, who did not renounce their beliefs on pain of death and prison, who do not want their country to become a place of geopolitical showdowns.- writes Medvedchuk.

So, what do we have as a result? If the West goes for further escalation, Russia goes for it too and ready to raise the stakes before the use of nuclear weapons. Regarding the internal Ukrainian agenda, according to Moscow, there is no one to negotiate here, which means set a course for the creation of a new political elite of Ukraine, but already completely loyal and controlled by the Russian Federation.

Both theses in themselves very dangerous and irreconcilable. External players are given a signal that the Russian Federation does not care won't turn anymore and preparing for the most radical denouementincluding nuclear. Well, in the Ukrainian direction, in order to put a conditional Yanukovych or even the author of the article Medvedchuk in the main chair of the country, for this, first the Russian army to take Kyiv.