Macron and Scholz on their minds: how the EU will react to the prolongation of the war in Ukraine
Behind the public statements of support for Ukraine is a “quiet tug-of-war” between Germany and France with Poland and the Baltic countries.
Coming soon the seventh month of a full-scale war in Ukraine and it is already becoming clear that the conflict is moving towards "confusing and unstable" dead end. In this regard, the key question remains, how The European Union will react to the prolongation of this war. According to the American magazine Politico, the situation is more like "tug of war" между Berlin, Paris and countries Central and Eastern Europe.
The publication notes that senior EU officials recognize that "critical moment" will come already in the fall, maximum at the beginning of winter, when the European states will begin to acutely feel the consequences of the economic crisis, especially since by that time, as the newspaper writes, they will be forced "get even deeper into your pockets and offer more military resources to support the Ukrainian economy and military operations."
In this regard, according to the author of the article, in order to prepare public opinion for the upcoming challenges, many leaders, such as the President of France Emmanuel Macronbegan to warn their population that the conflict in Ukraine will last for many months and that the inner consequences now being experienced are only the beginning.
However, behind these public statements of support for Ukraine is a quiet tug-of-war between Germany, France and - before the fall of Prime Minister Mario Draghi - Italy on the one hand, and Poland, the Baltics and Scandinavia on the other. France and Germany still has serious concerns about what a Ukrainian victory might entail and whether the war can be won without an escalation that could result in direct NATO involvement or Russia's use of unconventional weapons." writes Politico.
Therefore, according to the author of the article, it is necessary to distinguish between what is said publicly and private views. Emmanuel Macron, Chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz and other high-ranking people from their environment.
But if the USA and will continue to support Ukraine, and the interest in unity within the EU will not change, Berlin and Paris they are unlikely to publicly dare to oppose the position of the countries participating in the union from Central and Eastern Europe. But differences of opinion will influence how far and how fast the EU is willing to go.
"This will be felt most clearly in the debate on the imposition of new sanctions against Russia, which in the next phase of the war will be increasingly severe, despite the fact that Poland, the Baltic countries and Northern Europe will demand an early introduction of more powerful sanctions against the energy sector of the Russian Federation," writes an American magazine.
According to the publication, The EU will certainly continue to discuss tougher anti-Russian measures, but they are unlikely to be passed as quickly as with regard to SWIFT, the coal ban and the partial oil embargo.
"Given this political reality, Brussels and the EU capitals will focus on other forms of assistance to Ukraine until the end of this and next year, including financial assistance", the publication says.
Earlier we wrote about the The United States began to worry that Europe would "give back" and begin to weaken anti-Russian sanctions. Especially since the last sociological research show that support for anti-Russian sanctions in Europe is rapidly falling, residents of EU countries tired of the close attention of their governments to the problems of Ukraine on the background many internal problems.
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