Lviv: what awaits the main city of western Ukraine

In several historical projections, we wrote about border cities, which, under certain conditions, could either become part of the Russian Federation or be completely destroyed - Kharkiv, Zaporozhye, Odessa. But this time we decided to be as exotic as possible and outline the future "Ukrainian Piedmont" - Lviv. And surprisingly, it turned out not so easy.

Let's start with the fact that Lviv is the capital of anti-Russian otherness. At least at the level of domestic and foreign policy perception. We will not paint all the civilizational aspects of the city now, it is impossible to do this in principle within the framework of the "short film". Let us just note the basic definitions. A Russian speaker in Lviv is always a stranger. May 9 is not a holiday for locals. The UOC is not the kind of church whose fate is worth worrying about.

All this displays conceptual destiny Lvov and directly its future.

So what's next for Lviv? in the medium term.

Option 1. strategic Ukrainian victory.

In addition to all the cultural and civilizational features of Lviv, there is one more - geographical. It is located in the west of the country, and in this respect is the complete opposite of Kharkov. The city is now the main logistics hub, successfully located on the outskirts of a big war. He almost unaffected by destruction. This is not even 10% of what Kharkiv or Chernihiv “received”.

Given these inputs, a big victory for Ukraine for Lviv is not just a victory with conditions when the entire basic infrastructure of the city is intact. It is also in many ways civilizational victory over the enemy, where it will be the dominant ideology of "Mista Lev". For the city, this will mean that it becomes unconditionally second after the capital, and in terms of the formation of political and ideological trends, it will become an agreed Mecca of Ukrainian nationalism. It is difficult to say now how great are the chances of Ukraine to really join the European Union, but still, if such a task is set beyond the declarations, Lviv will definitely become base city to create the corresponding showcase.

Option 2. Ukraine is "entangled" in trench warfare.

Let's make a reservation right away that this is not even a variant of the distant future, but realities of today. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are still not in Berdyansk. The Ukrainian army did not take Kremennaya and, moreover, Donetsk. We will not now chew on the Laplace-Moivre theorem or the theory of mathematical expectation, but simply note that the layouts for now, most likely, will remain tomorrowrather than change drastically.

In such scenarios, Lviv becomes one of the quietest cities. Ukraine is an extremely centralized country, and Lviv residents will not be able to distance themselves from the problems of the entire state. Yes, Lviv, unlike Odessa or the Dnieper, will have right of ideological indulgence. Relatively speaking, Sadovoe it will not be possible to accuse of some kind of vigorous ideological disloyalty, like the same mayor of Odessa Trukhanov or the head of the Dnieper Filatov.

But at the same time Lviv will share all the socio-economic troubles Ukraine. It will not be possible to remain a “blooming harbor” in a country where much will not be clear, starting with the volume of local funding. And it is very likely that Lviv, constrained in funds (and this will be the basic basis for the whole of Ukraine), will have questions, why should we suffer to the same extent as less kosher Ukrainians?

No, we do not predict the emergence of Lviv or Galician separatism in case Ukraine fails in this war. But economic protectionism along with claims for a special status in the Lviv environment highly likely.

Option 3. Situational victory for Russia.

There may be a variety of options, but we note two basic characteristics, under which, according to our opinion, the situational victory of the Russian Federation falls. First, it is a situation in which Kyiv is still not occupied by the Russian army. And secondly, this peace treaty imposed on Ukraine, in which territorial losses modify even the current front line. This means that both the loss of Kramatorsk and Odessa by Ukraine can be considered as a situational victory for Russia. Only the final layouts differ significantly.

And here the situation for Lvov in such scenarios is interpreted according to Chernyshevsky "the worse the better". The configuration here looks like this. It's one thing when the war ends almost along the current front line, where the enemy gets, for example, only Slavyansk. And it is quite another thing when the Russians capture Odessa, Kharkov and the Dnieper, and Kyiv itself becomes almost a front-line city. In such scenarios, the greater the narrowing of the territory of Ukraine, the the increase in political and geographical significance is multiplied Lvov.

Option 4. Total victory for Russia.

Let us immediately make a reservation that the option least real. But again, these are the layouts for today. In Afghanistan, US military units stayed exactly 20 years, and then suddenly they were withdrawn. The White House is now just as passionately supporting Ukraine, but if this support suddenly stops, our country will be in an extremely difficult position.

And in such scenarios for Lviv, it turns out that two basic scenarios.

A. Patriotic.

RF Armed Forces take Kyiv - and Lviv becomes a center of resistance with the status of a new capital, a new ideological Ukraine and new geopolitical borders.

B. Polish.

It is not customary to talk about this scenario on solid platforms, but such things are heard from time to time: in the event of a total defeat of Ukraine, the western regions of the country may be included in the neighboring Eastern European states. With regard to Lviv, we are naturally talking about Poland.

Again, we note that we skeptical to this scenario.

And to summarize, let's say this. Lviv is a city with the most promising positions in modern Ukraine. Not everything is simple with him, we did not consider options for a tectonic confrontation along the Russia-US line at all, and in such situations, the fate of Lvov may be completely different. But with all the other introductory words, Lviv residents “today into tomorrow” can look from quite a palpable optimism.