Korean scenario: what is offered to Ukraine, and why the authorities do not like it

"We now offer korean version. The so-called conditional "38th parallel". Here are such Ukrainians, but here not such Ukrainians. The Russians will now invent anything. I know for sure that one of the options that they can offer us is the “38th parallel”. But, recently talking with representatives of Korea, I noticed... They believe that there was a big mistake back then, that they made concessions, agreed that it was necessary for the sake of preservation... Today they have problems.”Danilov said.

Several observations can be made from this speech. First, judging from the words Danilova, it is the Russian side that proposes the “Korean version” to the Office. It should be noted that publicly neither the officials of the Kremlin, nor the near-government political party of the Russian Federation never made such a proposal.. At least, at a high level or in serious expert circles, they did not sound.

Secondly, Danilov formally seems to criticize this “Korean version”, says that he even talked with some “Korean representatives”, and in general, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council shows that such a world is unacceptable for Ukraine. Nevertheless, it was Danilov who voiced the thesis about the “Korean version” in the media space, that is, already launched a discourse around him. And this means that it is somehow, yes, considered.

And thirdly, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, apparently, knows the history of the Korean War very capably, otherwise he would not talk about the fact that the Koreans "made concessions", because in the 50s no one really asked koreanswhat the final world will be like.

But let's take a closer look is it possible in Ukraine basically the "Korean version".

Korea has been a colony of Japan since 1910 and remained in this status until the defeat of the latter in World War II - until September 1945. Then for five years (actually, before the start of the Korean War itself), the peninsula was divided into two zones of occupation - Soviet and American. In fact, it was a variant of a divided Germany, only in the Far East. The only difference is that zones of influence were clearly fixed in Europe, which made a big war between the USA and the USSR unlikely. And in Korea, there was its own version of the Minsk agreements, when intentions to unite the peninsula were declared, but each side read them solely for your own benefit.

However, the main difference for 1950 (the beginning of the Korean War) in comparison with the year 2023 (the height of the war in Ukraine) is the recognition by Washington of Moscow as a geopolitical figure equal to itself. The parties did everything possible to weaken, and even destroy each other, on occasion, but at the same time, by definition, mutual zones of influence and geopolitical rights were recognized. Now Russia is in many ways waging a war in order to regain the status of a geopolitical player on an equal footing with the United States.

At the same time, the 50s for Americans were not the best time. In 1949, the Communists finally won in China, and Beijing then completely focused on Moscow. The French ineptly lost battle after battle against the same communists in North Vietnam, the final shame of which would be the Battle of Dien Bien Phu in 1954. Leftist guerrilla movements will actively emerge in the crumbling colonies of the British and Dutch from Malaya to Indonesia. Therefore, when the North Koreans attack the southerners and in two months they find themselves near Busan (practically the southernmost tip of the entire peninsula), the Americans will perceive this as another attack on the zone of their geopolitical interests.

There is a moment that connects massacre in Ukraine with Korean War.

This is an equal degree of involvement of the two superpowers, while Russia is now repeats the American experience middle of the last century. At the end of 1950, the remnants of the South Korean army would certainly have been thrown into the Korea Strait if the Americans had not directly entered the war. Then they acted under the UN brand, dragging allies from different parts of the world for visibility, but every 9 out of 10 warring soldiers with a UN patch were still Americans on their passports. But the USSR, with the exception of the Air Force, did not directly participate in that war, just as the Americans do not do it now in Ukraine.

When it came to defeating the North Koreans, Moscow gave the go-ahead to save the allies with the help of the Chinese army. Note that the Chinese army of the 50s is even in remote comparison Not the same, as the modern army of the PRC. But the Chinese had Soviet weapons in abundance, as well as an almost inexhaustible human base.

As a result, by the next year, both sides were in strategic stalemate. The front stabilized almost in the same place from which the war began - in the region of the 38th parallel. And further confrontation with "reasonable costs" became impossible. That is why Moscow and Washington began to negotiate. And we agreed to what we have to this day - the Republic of Korea in the south and the DPRK in the north.

But the differences between the Korean War and the modern one in Ukraine are still significant. First, neither the USSR nor the USA did not intend to join some parts of Korea. Both sides recognized the subjectivity of the future country and fought only for whose influence it would be.

Secondly, and this is much more important, the loss of the United States or the USSR in the Korean War would not have any critical consequences for none of the parties. Actually, this is why both geopolitical players came to an agreement relatively easily and quickly. For Russia, a loss in Ukraine is an existential threat to its existence, and therefore no compromises are emerging so far.

Thirdly, the war has not yet passed the critical point, after which it is realized that the enemy cannot be unwound in the field. This is clearly evidenced by the multiply enlarged announcements on military supplies from the West, which already include armored vehicles. That is, the realization that it is no longer possible to get out of the war at a "reasonable price", at least in Washington, not yet.

And that means the “Korean version” for Ukraine it can not be. At least in 2023.