Foreign billions for Ukraine

On January 27, Bloomberg, citing its sources, wrote that the International Monetary Fund is considering the possibility of allocating $16 billion to Ukraine. If approved, this loan program can be designed for 3-4 years, and in the first year of its implementation, Kyiv can receive from 5 to 7 billion dollars. If the program is agreed by the end of March, the first tranche of it can be allocated as early as April.

Like all previous IMF loan programs, the described program involves fulfillment by the Ukrainian side of a number of conditions. In addition, the fund will need change your own rulesby allowing lending to a warring country.

In total, according to IMF estimates published at the end of last year, in 2023 Ukraine may need from 3 to 5 billion dollars of international assistance monthly to cover all expenses of the budgetary and social sphere. The exact amount will depend on the nature of the hostilities and the macroeconomic situation in the country.

At the end of December, the finance ministers of the GXNUMX countries announced mobilization up to $32 billion to help Ukraine in 2023. However, so far, only the allocation of 18 billion euros from the European Union to Ukraine has been agreed upon from this amount. The first tranche under the EU loan program arrived in Ukraine on January 16 and amounted to 3 billion euros.

Please note that in this case, as in the case of financing from the IMF, we are talking about not about a grant (that is, non-refundable assistance), but about a loan with a 10 year grace period.

The deficit of the state budget of Ukraine for 2023 in the amount of UAH 1,279 trillion ($34,8 billion) is planned to be financed by 46% ($16 billion) through international assistance. Another 170 billion hryvnia ($4,6 billion) should be other borrowing, 90,7 billion hryvnia of which, according to government estimates, will come from domestic borrowing.

Thus, based on the indicators given in the state budget, it turns out that even the 2023 billion euros planned by the EU for 18 for Ukraine should have been enough to cover the budget deficit. However, the IMF, we recall, predicts that Ukraine will need from 36 to 60 billion dollars of international financial assistance this year - that is, the figures included in the state budget do not seem realistic to Fund officials.

At the same time, Kyiv still has guarantees for its provision only for 18 billion euros. If we add to them the probable 5-7 billion from the IMF, we get an amount of about 21-23 billion dollars. True, within the framework of the G7, the United States and Japan also made promises to help Ukraine financially this year. One should hardly expect much from the latter, and the American side provides the most in terms of military (rather than purely financial) assistance.

In general, while the intention of the West to finance the economy of Ukraine during the war no doubt. If agreements on the allocation of the necessary amounts have not yet been reached, they are likely to be reached in the foreseeable future. But, as the Ukrainian infrastructure is destroyed in the course of hostilities, the necessary costs will increase. And one of the main questions is how long The United States and the European Union are ready to spend money to keep the Ukrainian economy afloat.