Much worse than in the 37,2s: Ukraine's real GDP fell by XNUMX%
In the 90s, the maximum drop was - 22,9%.
The Ukrainian economy has already suffered catastrophic losses due to the war. Thus, the real GDP of Ukraine decreased by 37,2%. This is evidenced by the data of the State Statistics Service.
“Real GDP in the second quarter of 2022 decreased by 19,1% compared to the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted), and compared to the II quarter of 2021 - by 37,2%»- said in the message.
At the same time, the Ministry of Economy believes that the fall in Ukraine's GDP in 2022 will be 33,2%.
“Following the results of 2022 we expect a slowdown in the fall in GDP to 33,2%. When forming the state budget for 2023, we will proceed from a conservative scenario of the development of events, which will allow the state to reduce budgetary risks and fully fulfill all its obligations to citizens.”, - the Minister of Economy explained such a spread of indicators Yulia Sviridenko.
Also, according to her, the fall in GDP by 37,2% is a “good” indicator: the previous forecast for this period was 40,6%.
Such a spread in predicted and real indicators indicates the extreme instability of the economic situation in the country during the war, in which any forecasts can only be conditional. And the actual results depend on a number of factors:
- situations on the battlefield;
- availability of investments;
- the availability and volume of international assistance;
- budget revenues of Ukraine;
- economic activity, etc.
How does all this threaten ordinary Ukrainians?
GDP growth is the best indicator of how a state is developing and how its well-being is changing. GDP growth means that the country:
- the standard of living of the population rises, salaries grow;
- production is expanding: more goods and services have been produced, which has increased the receipt of taxes in the budget;
- government spending on the needs of citizens is increasing: social spending and so on.
GDP reflects the market value of all goods and services produced in a year in all sectors of the economy of a particular state, and is calculated using the formula:
GDP = consumer spending + gross investment + government spending + (exports - imports).
Decrease in GDP - a sign of an economic downturn: people buy less, companies produce less, business and government revenues are declining. That is, the quality of life of citizens depends on the state of GDP.
On According to World Bank, the real GDP of Ukraine in its entire history of independence, even in the most difficult year of 1994, did not sink below 22,9%.
So, Ukraine was overtaken by the most serious economic crisis in the history of the country.
Let's emphasize: the current situation is mitigated by international financial assistance aimed at maintaining the macro-financial stability of Ukraine, and allows the state to fulfill all social obligations to the population on time and in full.
Previously we published a forecast from the Cabinet of Ministers for 2023, according to which in 2023 the dollar could reach 50 hryvnia, and quoted an expert who believes that Ukraine can return to salaries of $150, as in the nineties.
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