Exclusive: the former deputy head of the National Security and Defense Council told what Ukrainians should expect for the holidays and about the document on security guarantees for Ukraine
Stepan Gavrish commented on the role of Great Britain in the war and the role of Erdogan in negotiations with the Russian Federation.
Threats of massive rocket attacks on Ukraine, the recent visit of the Turkish President to our country, the policy of Great Britain regarding the war - we discussed this and much more in an interview with a Doctor of Law, Professor, Honored Lawyer of Ukraine, People's Deputy of Ukraine of the III and IV convocations, as well as former First Deputy Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Stepan Gavrish.
You can watch the full interview at Klymenko Time channel on Youtube very soon.
What can we expect on August 24?
This year's holiday is held with tears in our eyes. Reuters newspaper came out last night with a message, which, according to Western intelligence, and as journalists wrote - grades downgraded, that is, in order not to escalate panic, these estimates are softened to such a level as to be purely informational - the Russian Federation is really going to launch missile and bomb strikes on "decision-making centers."
Russia has prepared: in the Byelorussian, Kursk and Bryansk regions, in the Crimea - there are a large number of missiles ready for launch - 55 missiles on ships of the Black Sea Fleet and submarines, "Caliber" and "Iskander" in the Bryansk and Kursk regions, as well as missiles " X-22". Approximately 300 to 700 missiles concentrated in combat positions, waiting for orders. Will such an order be given? Logically Vladimir Putinstriking that day might demonstrate that Ukraine is unable to defend itself, in fact, such a massive missile strike on this day could seriously damage Ukrainian logistics centers, political infrastructure centers, and authorities. Moreover, without having more modern missile defense and air defense systems, we will not be able to counteract such a massive shelling.
Putin is in a serious military stalemate that is hard to get out of using conventional methods of war. The only advantage that the Russian Federation has is missiles and nuclear weapons. In this situation, when we have reached a certain parity in the military-technical confrontation with the Russian Federation, inflicting such a powerful blow on Ukraine, from Putin's point of view, should not just to scare the Ukrainians, but to cause a state of some kind of paralysis, under which Ukrainians will change their support for the independence of Ukraine and will be able to make territorial concessions. It is important to understand that Putin needs some kind of leverage on Zelensky for possible negotiations...
The role of the Turkish President in the negotiations
Intentions Erdogan are not fully understood, but there are two points that need to be understood - first he is in a very difficult position, now his rating is lower than that of the mayor of Ankara, and his party has a lower rating than the opposition. Inflation and devaluation of the lira, the fall of the economy, the arrest of the military elite, etc., brought him to the foreign policy ring with a rather difficult mission, when you need to find a middle ground between the cruel aggressor and the victim.
He is trying to force Zelensky and Putin to sit down at the table with the sole purpose of using Putin’s personal experience and Zelensky’s biography, who knows how to maneuver, to find the same compromise, but Ukrainian society does not agree to this. Negotiations in Istanbul — just failed. Erdogan is still trying to arrange negotiations before the G-20 summit...
On the role of Great Britain in the war
From my point of view, it is the Anglo-Saxons who today pay for the war of Ukraine against the Russian Federation. Not just money, but their reputation, their position. I think that by this time they have lost approximately 1,5% to 2% of their GDP in support of Ukraine. Not only the supply of weapons and the provision of grants, the main thing is the imposition of sanctions. Sanctions on the main energy supplier to Europe, the supplier of land resources, etc.
Therefore, from this point of view, the question arises whether the British have a moral right to tell Ukraine whether it is possible to negotiate [with Russia] or not? At the same time, I note that they are investing money not just to protect Ukraine from Kyiv, but also investing money in victory, providing us with modern technologies. After all, the war is waged on a different level, it is a war of different generations.
Therefore, answering the question - can the Americans and the British tell what the Ukrainians should do I would say yes, they can. And we must speak! After all, thanks to the fact that they told the Germans what to do and by investing money in Germany after the war, in the form of the Marshall Plan, by providing lend-lease to Britain during the war, by providing other types of assistance, they created the super-economic locomotives of the world ...
About the document on security guarantees for Ukraine
I worked at the National Security Council and at the same time managed a whole group of different projects that significantly affected national security. I can draw the following conclusions.
First, such guarantees did not yet exist in the world and no one in the world gave such guarantees. The second is about giving guarantees to Ukraine that would be similar to Article 5 of the NATO Charter, Western countries have already concluded that this is impossible to do and no one will give such guarantees. Then the question arises, what guarantees can they give us?
If you paid attention to the initial list of countries that were supposed to give guarantees, then China and the Russian Federation were there ... Well, this is ridiculous! These are countries with different political systems, different strategic goals and military doctrines. At least, these countries are not our allies, only allies can give guarantees, and these are NATO countries.
If it says that Andrey Ermak negotiates with NATO and Jens Stoltenberg confirms that it can be trusted. But if they say that we are negotiating with Austria, which does not provide military assistance to Ukraine, or with Hungary, which does the same, then I will say that it just looks like an information war.
I regard all this as a kind of false goal. The only guarantees we can get, and we are already getting, are NATO. Either we must say that sooner or later we will be in NATO and will be in the same military-political and economic club with the allies, or we will look for some “strange” negotiations with Putin, where in exchange for his guarantees we will refuse its sovereignty. Joining NATO is also a sacrifice of sovereignty, but it's a sacrifice that gives us so much more power...
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