Belarusian direction: how will the build-up and combat coordination of Russian and Belarusian troops end?

In recent days, news about military preparations in Belarus. Yesterday, the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus announced the continuation of the build-up of the allied group of troops in the country. This refers to the joint Russian-Belarusian group, the formation of which began in October 2022. The department noted that "personnel, weapons, military and special equipment of the armed forces of the Russian Federation will continue to arrive in Belarus."

It is noteworthy that at the end of October, after the arrival in Belarus of a little more than 9 thousand Russian military (such figures were officially called), Alexander Lukashenko stated that this amount is "sufficient for the time being". Pointing to the overall scale of the military preparations being carried out in Belarus, we then predicted a further increase Russian-Belarusian group. And, as we see, our forecast comes true.

Yesterday and today, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported how at least three levels with Russian military equipment that arrived in the republic in recent days. Two of them were presented by the equipment that comes into service with the Russian component of the joint group of forces, and the third consisted of Russian-made BTR-82A and BTR-80K, put into service with the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus.

It should be noted that it is these units of the Belarusian army, if a new front is opened on the northern border of Ukraine, that together with Russian troops can take part in battles against the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since they are the most trained units of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus. It is their column marked with signs with a red square, was observed during movement towards the Ukrainian border during a sudden check of the combat readiness of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, which took place before the New Year.

Additionally, Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Alexander Volfovich today announced that Belarus has handed over a large batch of individual first-aid kits to the Russian military. Preparation of medical equipment (in this case, individual), as well as the deployment of field hospitals, traditionally considered one of the important preparation of one or another army / group of troops for going on the offensive.

Also today, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on completion of combat coordination Russian and Belarusian units of the joint grouping of troops, which began in October 2022, and published photos from the Obuz-Lesnovsky training ground near the city of Baranovichi (between the center and south-west of Belarus). The photographs show a large field camp of Russian servicemen.

All this news is superimposed on what we're talking about have written many times before. Namely, that before the New Year, several checks of combat readiness were carried out in the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, which implied the development of mobilization deployment, and the Belarusian military registration and enlistment offices verified (the process ended on January 1) the data of all, without exception, those liable for military service of the republic.

Earlier (since July 2022), the staff of territorial defense troops was significantly expanded in the Republic of Belarus, and in addition to them, a "people's militia" (an analogue of Ukrainian volunteer units of territorial communities) was established, where those who wished were also recruited. In addition, back in the summer, Belarus announced the formation new military command in the Ukrainian direction. Judging by the data of the Ukrainian side that the Belarusian troops, aimed at strengthening the border, have been staying there for many months, it was nevertheless formed.

In Ukraine, the military preparations of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus are inclined to be explained by an attempt to pull Ukrainian troops from the Donbass to cover Kyiv. In particular, this point of view was repeatedly voiced Head of GUR Kirill Budanov. However, the scale, planning, duration and systematic nature of military preparations in Belarus speak in favor of the fact that they are far from "showy". And then, from a strategic point of view, a second offensive against Kyiv would be much more important for the Russian Federation than the occupation of a number of cities in the Donbass. In early December, he admitted this in his interview with The Economist. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, expressing confidence that the Russian side will definitely make a second attempt to attack Kyiv.

Military preparations in Belarus, obviously, not yet completed. But every week they are getting closer to the final point. The probable date for the readiness of the Russian group in the Republic of Belarus for some kind of active action is February of this year. However, circumstances may change it. Anyway, preparation of the Russian and Belarusian sides for the likely opening of the "northern front" against Ukraine seems obvious.