Bakhmut: what are the chances of the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to save the city, and what will happen if it is lost?

It is already difficult to characterize the situation around Bakhmut with the phrase "stably critical", one can move on to the epithet "catastrophic". Between the northern and southern groups of PMC "Wagner", hanging over Bakhmut, the distance in a straight line, judging by the information on the Web, is less than 4 km. All remaining roadways to the west are completely shot through by the enemy, and communication with the garrison of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Bakhmut itself is possible only at night. Meanwhile, the "Wagnerites" are gradually advancing in the city itself, displacing the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine closer to the center.

A number of speakers from the Ukrainian authorities have been saying for some time that Bakhmut has no strategic importance, the city itself is completely destroyed, and in which case it will be “just” the withdrawal of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to new more advantageous positions.

Another thing is that they created from Bakhmut media image of an impregnable fortress. Zelensky, recall, in Washington compared the battles for the city with the battle of Saratoga. For the Americans, that battle was the first major victory over the British in the Revolutionary War. Based on this analogy, then it is the Armed Forces of Ukraine that should win a victory over the units of the Russian Federation near Bakhmut, and not vice versa.

Finally, the possible loss of Bakhmut in Ukrainian society raise uncomfortable questions about the losses incurred for this city. And they are prohibitively high, if we start only from the reports of the Western media, as well as from the recordings of the Ukrainian military that pop up on the Web.

Therefore, if the city does not have special strategic importance, as it is claimed, then why was it held on to it at such an exorbitant price? And if the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had some idea according to Bakhmut, then what exactly was it, if the losses were huge, and the city didn’t care was practically under the control of the enemy?

Obviously, in the event of a completely negative development of the situation, the loss of Bakhmut will interrupt by creating some more important victories. They can go for the minimum wage and create another "partisan movement" in the near border area of ​​the Russian Federation, or, for example, organize a mass attack with drones.

The second option is to interrupt the informational occasion “in a rich way”, and here it just fits perfectly history with Transnistria. But here the problem is that such things will certainly be agreed with Western partners. Yes, and in Chisinau they are very nervous about this undertaking. In addition to the fact that the Moldovans can receive arrivals of Russian missiles, which in itself will bring down the economy of a country that is not the most stable, but one must also understand what to do with the inhabitants of Transnistria. Moldova is already a divided country, and almost half a million absolutely pro-Russian people live in Transnistria itself.

Therefore, with the loss of Bakhmut far from a factthat the Armed Forces of Ukraine will immediately begin a "special operation" in Transnistria.

Well, now let's move on to the situation "in the field", especially since the main battles for Bakhmut are just now going on in the fields. The city is surrounded by Russians along the perimeter from all sides, except for the western one. The northern grouping of the enemy, which is now biting through to Khromovo, has been most active in recent days. This is a village on the western tip of Bakhmut, and if it is lost, the city will no longer be operational, but in complete surroundings.

But the problem is further aggravated by the situation around Yar Clock, the next city after Bakhmut. The southern group of Wagner PMCs has already reached the H-32 highway, which links the two cities. But for Hours of Yar, this route goes a little south of the city, where the enemy is already located. Therefore, in the event of the fall of Bakhmut, there is reason to believe that another battle will begin - for Chasov Yar. And the problem here is not even in the threat of losing another city, but in the fact that a new defensive line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine begins with the Yar Clock, covering the last large agglomeration that remains under the control of Ukraine - Slavyansko-Kramatorsk.

And at the same time, in Bakhmut itself, judging by the information that enters the Network, the enemy is slowly moving towards the city center along the entire perimeter, narrowing the possibilities for any maneuver of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In the south, fighting is taking place near the Mariupol cemetery and the Old City dump. From the east, the Wagner attack aircraft had already passed the Artyomovsk sparkling wine factory and reached the Eastern Headquarters. In the north, the entire Stupka microdistrict is already under Russian control, and the fighting gradually move towards the center.

And one more important point - how this story will end in terms of prisoners, which in itself very demoralizing at war. When the Armed Forces of Ukraine left Severodonetsk and Lisichansk - both cities are much larger than Bakhmut - there were practically no prisoners, and as a result, there was no big media catastrophe from their loss. In September last year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine already rapidly broke into Balakleya, and then into Izyum and Kupyansk, but there were no mass captures of Russians either. And it was a completely different story with Mariupol - it was the string of prisoners that became one of the most painful problems after the loss of the city.

If there is an order to keep the city at any cost, then it must be constantly replenished with new reserves, and significant ones at the same time, otherwise Bakhmut will physically have no one to defend. But given the operational situation around him, in which the environment can take place at any time, threat of capture a large part of the soldiers is huge.