13 August 2020 19: 42
Headings: Opinions

What is happening in Belarus?

Vsevolod Nepogodin from Minsk - about the events taking place in the Republic of Belarus. Especially for Klymenko Time. The editors may not share the assessments of the authors posted in the "Opinions" section.

Vsevolod Nepogodin
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What is happening in Belarus?

Vsevolod Nepogodin from Minsk - about the events taking place in the Republic of Belarus. Especially for Klymenko Time. The editors may not share the assessments of the authors posted in the "Opinions" section.

On the morning of July 31, I flew to Minsk to understand the processes taking place in Belarus on the spot. All those whom Russian propagandists sneerly call "Father's experts" are my comrades and in informal conversations can tell information that sometimes they themselves cannot voice for diplomatic reasons.

What is happening in Belarus? - photo 1

There were no problems when passing the border control at the airport "Minsk" - dozens of stamps in the passport about crossing the Belarusian border and loyalty in my texts to Lukashenka's policy predetermined a positive result. Over the past two weeks, I had the opportunity to talk off record with Belarusian experts, deputies, members of the government, visit opposition rallies and, as an international observer, watch the election process. In this text, I will speak for readers as a manager for relations with the Belarusian reality.

Active pre-election campaign began in the spring. I'll tell you about the politicians, and who, according to my information, is behind them. Valery Tsepkalo is a creature of the Russian FSB and personally Alexander Bortnikov. Viktor Babariko is a creature of the Russian Gazprom. Sergei Tikhanovsky - behind him is a very outlandish situational alliance of forces close to the US Democratic Party and the Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska (it was through the Democratic Party that the now detained political strategist Vitaly Shklyarov came to Tikhanovsky). The goal of all politicians financed from Russia is the departure of Alexander Lukashenko from the post of President.

Anna Kanopatskaya, Andrei Dmitriev and Sergei Cherechen were also registered as presidential candidates. Their participation in the presidential campaign is a springboard for the upcoming parliamentary elections, which will take place after the constitutional reform. Now the parliament consists only of majoritarian deputies, but it will be mixed, party-majoritarian. Kanopatskaya, Dmitriev and Cherechen want to enter the future parliament as party leaders - locomotives of the lists. Funded partly from own funds and in most of the European grants, mostly German.

After all three Russian-sponsored politicians were not registered as candidates, Viktor Babariko's chief of staff, Maria Kolesnikova, took under her wing Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the wife of Sergei Tikhanovsky, who was barred from the elections. It is Gazprom that is the main interest in Lukashenka's departure.

Very soon, the BelNPP will start operating in Astravets. Today, 95% of Belarusian electricity is generated from Russian gas. The commissioning of the BelNPP will reduce the consumption of Russian gas by five billion cubic meters annually - a significant blow to Gazprom's revenues. It turns out a story painfully familiar to Ukrainians: if in our country Akhmetov is fighting nuclear power plants with the help of Shmyhal and Gerus for the sake of selling his coal to economically inefficient thermal power plants, then in Belarus Gazprom decided to fight the BelNPP with the hands of hired political neophytes.
It is inappropriate in this story to traditionally shout about the "hand of the Kremlin" and "Putin's cunning plan." Putin is a balancer and the main arbiter of the Russian political system, equidistant from all centers of influence. The launch of BelNPP - Gazprom shares down, Rosatom shares up. One Russian energy state corporation rises at the expense of the deteriorating well-being of another Russian energy state corporation. Putin watches from the sidelines the battle between Gazprom and Rosatom for Belarus, does not interfere and, of course, immediately recognizes Lukashenka as the elected President.

In the Minsk circles around the government, they say that Gazprom has already spent a billion two hundred million dollars to destabilize the situation in Belarus. According to the contract, which ended on August 09, the head of Viktor Babariko's headquarters, Maria Kolesnikova, received ten thousand dollars daily. "Gazprom" hoped that by putting his man at the head of Belarus, he would more than recoup investments, strangling the "BelNPP" and raising the price of gas for Belarusian consumers. The usual economic war on the energy front and no ideology. Pro-European slogans were invented for the opposition, but the main investor of the protests turned out to be in Russia.

Lukashenka's team found out in time about the impending destabilization campaign and began to act according to the principle "It's better to overdo it than not do it!". All Russian-funded politicians were brought to light as agents of external influence and were not allowed to participate in elections - sovereignty is above all. Foreigners at the slightest suspicion of disloyalty to the current government were denied entry to Belarus. This is the reason for the lapel-turn at the border to correspondents of very harmless Ukrainian publications Klymenko Time, Strana.ua and Sharij.net.

Minsk, Kyiv Square

On August 1994, I attended an opposition protest on Kievskaya Square in Minsk. Tsoi's song "Changes" sounded from the speakers, but looking around I was reminded of another creation of Viktor Robertovich "Eighth Grader". Mom's lipstick, big sister's boots, white wristband and no reasonable demands! For two hours I listened intently to the voices of the protesters and heard only two intelligible political demands - the return of the white-red-white flag as the state flag and the abolition of the Constitution adopted in XNUMX. Everything else is a stream of insults against Lukashenka and empty slogans, behind which there is not the slightest specificity. Law enforcement officers behaved correctly. The police inspection was purely symbolic. The authorities allowed the youth to let off steam - let them love their dolls and balloons.

Coronavirus has affected the increase in protest masses. With the introduction of quarantine, European countries forced Belarusians to immediately return home. Double loyalty is impossible in Belarus - the authorities carefully monitor their citizens who have received a Pole's card and social elevators are closed for them in the country. Thus, the risks of separatism are stopped - in the interwar years, Brest and Grodno were part of the Second Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and today the authorities in these territories do not need sympathizers for Poland. Thousands of students with a Pole's card were forced to return to Belarus and began to publicly resent the order. Poland and the Baltic States are involved in the information pumping of the Belarusian opposition youth - the neighbors do not need a stable Belarus.

Teenagers are demanding change, freedom and democracy, but they have never been anywhere, they have not seen anything and they have nothing to compare with. Where is democracy? In the United States, where Hillary Clinton, who won the absolute majority of votes, did not eventually become president due to a complex electoral system? Or in China, where Facebook is blocked? Young people cannot say specifically where it is good and why. Belarus did not close its borders because of the coronavirus - enter and exit as much as you like! In Belarus, now they do not fine for the lack of masks and do not require them to be worn at all! No covid restrictions! And when today they are protesting at the Belarusian embassy in Russia, where Muscovites were put in self-isolation in a digital punishment cell in the spring, this is absurd!

If on May 09 a victory parade over the coronavirus was held in Minsk, guided by the logic “We won the Great War - how can we lose to some virus after that ?!”, then on August 09 they decided to arrange a political triumph for Lukashenka and a master class on confronting Gene Sharp's training manual , which resulted in the final voting figures. After all, Ukrainians, even without the head of the Belarusian Central Election Commission, Yermoshina, are well aware of the common electoral truth “It doesn’t matter how they vote, it’s important how they count.”

The current government does not consider the opposition as enemies. Lukashenka's team perceives the protesters as negligent children who decided to play pranks. There is no installation from above on harsh violence - this is a grassroots initiative of the security forces. Imagine the situation: a portly riot policeman, a family man, wants a machanka with Lidsky for dinner at eight in the evening at home, and he has to hang around in the police station until dawn and reason with hooligans destroying flower beds. Put yourself in the place of the riot police: you have an eight-hour working day, the kids are waiting, and you have to hang around at work at three in the morning and calm the hormonal storms of young people who don’t know what they want - will you stroke their heads?! Have you heard the specific requirements of the Belarusian opposition regarding medicine, education, science or housing and communal services?! Me neither! The authorities are ready for a constructive dialogue - with numbers, details and rational proposals. But the opposition produces only hysteria and rudeness.

The Belarusian system is strong and unshakable. The authorities calculated all the scenarios ahead of time and prepared for an attempted coup d'état. At ten in the evening on August XNUMX, at the corner of Engels and Kirov near the building of the Presidential Administration, after introducing myself, I asked the policemen in the cordon: “Can I go to bed peacefully? Will there be a coup d'état?" The policeman, yawning, replied: “Of course. Do not worry". By the mood of the police, it was felt that they were ready to repel any attacks. Rollers with law enforcers throwing uniforms into the trash are artificial stuffing for destabilization. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB are betrayed by Lukashenka.

It is easier to break through the Great Wall of China with your head than to break the monolith of the Belarusian authorities. Wise people learn from the mistakes of others - Lukashenko learned from the events on the Maidan in 2014. The protests are doomed to die out - the only question is time. Someone will get a term for attempting a coup d'état, someone will run away abroad, someone will become embittered and go into internal emigration.

The main thing for Lukashenka is that Xi Jinping has already congratulated him on his victory - China is still the main ally of Belarus and the leader of the world economy. Belarusian experts say that thirty-three Wagners will be extradited to Russia when the wave of protests subsides. It is reported that Lukashenka is worried because Zelensky did not congratulate him on his victory. Abstract yourself from the hysteria whipped up in the telegram both from Europe and from Russia. Modern Belarus is the author's project of Lukashenka. Relations with the Republican government in the United States are satisfactory, injections from Europe and Russia will be reflected, and the strategic partnership with China will continue.

Relations between Belarus and Russia will never be the same. In Minsk, pro-government speakers, commenting on the prospects for a union state, do not stop repeating: “Union, not Anschluss! Integration, not incorporation! Official Moscow and Minsk have too different views on life.

The protests in Minsk are the actions of the most snickering part of the population. The beeping protesters on the new "BMW" X5 and "TOYOTA" RAV 4 are the bourgeoisie, insolent from satiety. The motto of Lukashenka's team is the same: "We will not give up our beloved Motherland!" The prospects for the detained Babariko, Tikhanovsky and Shklyarov are vague. In Belarus, under the slogans of democracy, there is an attempt to undermine sovereignty in the interests of the fuel and energy complex of the Russian Federation. Personally, I am closer to the welfare state in Belarus than the wild capitalism in Russia, based on the unfair distribution of income from hydrocarbon production, and therefore I publicly support the measures taken by Lukashenka to protect sovereignty.

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